The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing for nearly four and a half years. Israel’s occupation of Gaza and attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon continue unabated, and the U.S., Israel, and Iran have been intermittently launching airstrikes against each other in the Persian Gulf for over four months. As a result, not only the countries directly involved, but nations around the world are increasing military spending and strengthening military exercises, as if a war could break out at any moment. This arms race is bound to change the global situation, affecting not only military affairs but also politics, economics, and international relations.

Does an arms race lead to war? It is hard to say; the outbreak of war is the most difficult thing to predict. An arms race indicates a need for war preparedness; once prepared, countries may be emboldened to initiate or engage in war, otherwise, the military spending would have been in vain. On the other hand, war is costly and difficult to end—the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict are recent examples that should encourage countries to be cautious about war. Regardless, even if no new wars break out, the existing conflicts and deadlocks appear unlikely to be resolved in the short term, and they will continue to cause global instability.

The Russia-Ukraine war has recently seen some reversal, mainly because Ukrainian drones have flown into Russian territory to attack its energy production facilities, causing significant losses for Russia. These drone attacks have made life difficult for both sides, but for Russia, the greatest impact is likely psychological, causing anxiety among the Russian people. At this time, the increase in military spending by European nations for war preparedness may make the Russian people believe even more that the U.S. and Europe are preparing to invade Russia (a perception already fueled by NATO’s eastward expansion), thereby strengthening their resolve to fight. If necessary, Russia might even use tactical nuclear weapons to turn the tide of the war. If this happens, the U.S. and Europe might not dare to respond with nuclear weapons and could seemingly only strengthen economic sanctions against Russia. Conversely, everyone should exercise restraint to avoid nuclear war.

Countries are increasing military spending, of course, because of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars. Another important reason is the pressure exerted by U.S. President Trump on his allies. This must be viewed alongside Trump’s imposition of higher tariffs on various countries and his forcing of allies to invest in the United States. He believes that allies have saved on military spending by being protected by the U.S. and have enjoyed trade surpluses with the U.S., thus “taking advantage” of America, and he is determined to change this situation. Trump’s approach provides short-term benefits to the U.S., as allies will increase military purchases from the U.S. in the near term, though in the long term, they will produce their own weapons and ammunition. Forced investments from allies may increase U.S. employment in the short term, but whether they will be profitable in the long run is unknown (forced investment differs from general investment). Under the dual pressure of high tariffs, high military spending, and forced investments in the U.S., the economies of these allies will inevitably suffer, as will their alliance relationships with the United States.

In short, Trump is pursuing American interests at the expense of his allies. These allies include the EU, Japan, Canada, and others. Their economies were already not in great shape, and they may decline further in the future. Trump seems to fail to understand the principle of “if the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold” (a metaphor for shared interdependence); if the allies go into decline, how can the U.S. remain unaffected? These allies originally helped the U.S. economically to contain China, but now this containment is becoming increasingly loose and ineffective.

With the world in turmoil and the most powerful nations, the U.S. and China, both unable to dominate the global landscape, countries are increasing military spending and preparing for war, forming an arms race. Trump’s bellicose stance toward Iran, combined with his support for Israel’s actions in Gaza, has damaged America’s international image, thereby highlighting China as a pillar of world peace. If China can effectively leverage its peaceful image and strong manufacturing capabilities, it appears poised to gradually prevail in the arms race and in the U.S.-China competition, as the foundation for developing military power lies in manufacturing.