♦ 本文內容轉載自: 中美論壇專刊 US-China Forum (Chinese) ♦
編者按: 麥彼得(譯音) 大作 "What do you think about the tread war between China ans America ?"是網上盛傳的一篇隹作, 作者出生香港,已入籍加拿大,曾從事新聞工作,現己退休。(附英文原文)
幾乎每個人都錯認貿易戰了。美國今天强盛最重要的因素之一是美元霸權,霸權是憑藉美國強大的軍事力量以及其規定必須用美元購買石油的規則而獲得的;美元霸權基本上讓美國能以極大的優勢玩這貿易戰遊戲。
大多數國家沒有足夠的石油來為其經濟提供動能，因此必須從美國賺取或借用印刷的紙幣(美金)。如果沒有用美國紙幣形式的資本，全球大多數的供應鍊和貿易項目都是不可能的;美國只需印美金，而其他人必須從美國手中去賺美金，因此國際貿易遊戲一開始時就不公平了。順便說一句，貿易規則也基本上由美國制訂的。
美國充足又容易的資本，不僅創造了不公平的競爭，它還吸引了更多聰明优秀的人才來美國，為不斷擴大的軍事工業提供了資源，轉而用強大的軍力來懲罰任何不服從美國的國家，美國濫用軍力,到了肆無忌憚的程度。美國軍事工業集團繼而支持技術發展，擁有媒體和發言權，控制全球資源和貿易路線，創造更多有利於美國精英的不平衡競爭。
美元霸權使美國享有金融至上，貿易至上和軍事至上的地位。由於美國可以憑空創造紙質“財富”( 印美金) ，用它來購買世界自然資源和製造的產品，因此該國可以無限制地承擔債務而毫無感受。如此這般，造成了今日美國一般百姓成為負債人，僅有少數精英人士才真正擁有財富。美國人民過度迷戀自己的民主，卻不知民主己被克林頓，布什，奧巴馬以及現在的特朗普等人搞混，大多數選民確實愚昧無知,居然會相信像特朗普這樣一個從來沒有為普通百姓辦過事情的人，作為總統時會帶給人民任何好處。
長話短說，美國的力量建立在其軍事實力的基礎上，它強制使用美元購買必需的資源，大量發行美元，使得它在技術和貿易方面更強大，使軍隊更強大;大量發行美元,可以製造更多令人懼怕的武器，這些武器恐嚇那些無法自衛的國家和人民使他们覺得像自己被強奸一樣;不斷大量印發美元,悪性循環的結果造成今天的債臺高築;精英们不自反省,卻向美國廣大無知的群眾，不斷重複散佈,悪果是由中國造成的謊言。
為什麼會有貿易戰？中國經過40年的艱苦努力，按照鄧小平的建議，保持低調及沉默，韬光养晦，而今天中國已經發展到一种程度，它已經建立起了生存和繁榮的能力，而不必依賴於美國。它擁有足夠的美國債務，不容忽視。它擁有足夠的生產能力和大腦，可以讓它自立於自已雙足之上。它有能力建立自己的先進武器，可以擊退任何惡霸。中國是第一個有力量,有資金和意志對美國及美元霸權挑戰的國家。
華盛頓對中國懷有敵意的人都知道，中國對美元霸權的挑戰也不利美國精英層掠奪財富的特權;無奈的是，與中國大打一仗卻是不可能的選擇,可以斷言,戰爭是不會發生的，因為這些美國精英们是非常自私的，他們深知戰爭會使他們失去一切。精英們也擔心被剝削的美國公眾有一天會醒過來，責備他们，將他們分碎屍萬段。
在這背景下，他們可以對抗中國的唯一工具就是貿易戰，目前美國公眾仍被"中國應該承擔美國債務責任"的謊言所矇騙，美國仍然可以打印美元，美元仍然可以養活軍事工業綜合體，美元可以推動美國經濟。除此他們還能做什麼？以美元形式印刷“財富”一直是美國最強大的力量，但現在中國卻希望將這形勢改變。
2018/8/11
What do you think about the trade war between China and America?
Almost everyone gets the trade war wrong. One of the most important elements of American supremacy is the US Dollar hegemony. The hegemony is gained by virtue of America’s unparalleled military power, and the rule that oil must be purchased with the US dollar—the Petro-Dollar. It basically allows America to play the game at a great advantage.
Most countries do not have sufficient oil to fuel its economy, and therefore must earn or borrow the printed paper notes from America. Most projects of global supply chain and infrastructure for trade are not possible without capital in the form of US paper notes, and since America prints it while others have to earn it from America, the game of international trade cannot be fair to begin with. By the way, the trade rules are also by and large written by America.
The abundance of easy capital doesn’t just create unfair competition, it also attracts more brains to America, feeds an ever expanding military industrial complex, provides the means to punish anyone who does not say uncle, while enjoying complete impunity for the wanton abuse of its power. The military industrial complex in turn supports technology development, owns the media and the narrative, controls global resources and trade routes, creating more lopsided competition in favor of elite America.
Dollar Hegemony allows America to enjoy financial supremacy, trade supremacy, and military supremacy. Since America can create paper ‘wealth’ out of thin air and buy the world’s natural resources and manufactured products with it, the country can go into unlimited debt with impunity. After all, it’s the people who are in debt, but the elites who owns the wealth. The people of America are too enamored of their democracy, not realizing that it has been churning out people like Bill Clinton, Dubya Bush, Obama, and now Trump. The American voting public are so clueless and delusional that they actually believe that a person like Trump who has never done anything for the ordinary people’s benefit would give a rat’s ass for them as the president.
To make a long story short, America’s power is based on its military prowess which enforces the use of the US dollar for the purchase of essential resources, which allows America to print as much of the US dollars as it likes, which makes it even stronger in technology and trade, which makes its military even more powerful, which allows the printing of more US dollars to build more awesome weapons, which terrorizes those countries and peoples who cannot defend themselves and therefore allow themselves to be raped, while the deprived masses of America keep repeating the elite’s lie that China is to be blamed.
Why the trade war? China after 40 years of hard work, keeping its head down and biding its time in silence [韬光养晦] according to the advice of the venerable Deng Xiaoping, has arrived at a point where it has built up its ability to survive and thrive without depending on America. It has enough American debt that cannot be ignored. It has enough production capabilities and brains that will allow it to stand on its own two feet. It has the ability to build its own advanced weaponry that will repel any bully. China is the first country with the strength, the wherewithal, and the will to challenge America by openly attacking the Dollar Hegemony.
People in Washington who are hostile to China know that China’s challenge of the Dollar Hegemony is extremely dangerous to the American elite’s plundered wealth and privileges.Unfortunately, a hot war with China is impossible. It will not happen because these American elites are at the end of the day very selfish; they don’t want to lose everything, which would be the result of a hot war. The deprived American public might wake up one day and reckon that their elites are to blame and tear them limb from limb.
The only war they can start against China is a trade war, while the zombified American public are still swallowing the lie that China is to blame, while America can still print the dollars, while the dollars can still feed the military industrial complex, and while the dollars can fuel the American economy. What else can they do? America is really not very competitive in most other aspects. Printing ‘wealth’ in the form of dollars has been America’s greatest strength, but now China wants to take that away as well.
The trade war however will further damage America’s economy and cause more political turmoil in America. It will give China a good excuse to speed up the usage of RMB for international trades. It will accelerate China’s development of essential technologies and products that require RMB payments or a common commodity such as gold. China will take the opportunity to encourage the usage of CIPS, the Chinese alternative to SWIFT, and wean the world from complete dependence on the US financial system. The US dollar will always be significant, but it will not be a hegemon. People will have true alternatives.
Most people don’t understand the survival skills of both the CCP and the Chinese people. China will likely view this trade war as an opportunity. I’m guessing that is maybe why they are not so eager to settle. Trade talks are not going anywhere. Besides, it is pointless negotiating with Trump, who is doing a great job destroying America’s credibility.
Hopefully, in the not too distant future, America will not be able to print money with impunity or fund its military industrial complex with unlimited money. It will not be able to sow discord and create conflicts all over the world. Unilateral American sanctions will not be effective. The American people will realized that they are themselves to blame for electing liars and imbeciles to power and granting them impunity. A benign and enlightened America may emerge, and perhaps we’ll have peace and harmony again.
It will then be up to the great nations and their responsible leaders to get together to work out a way for all humanity to share in the fruits of human development which has been built on the backs of all humanity. Sorry to offend Ayn Rand lovers; capital didn’t build civilization, people did, and they did that while consuming the food produced by the original wealth producers. Taking care of each other, helping each other, and sharing with each other is the only way for humanity to survive and succeed on earth and beyond.
It’s always a good idea to know a little about the author: Ethnic Chinese, born in Hong Kong, parents staunchly anti-communist, brought up in elite English school, Roman Catholic, once having ambitions to become a priest—in other words, brainwashed to the max; went to university in Canada, became Canadian; worked in mainstream media in Hong Kong and Canada; worked in China for almost 20 years in broadcast and network technologies; speaks Cantonese, Mandarin, and English; reads and writes Simplified and Traditional Chinese, as well as English. Both my brothers-in-law are Caucasian, one of my nephews is a converted Jew with a Jewish family, and my grandson is half Irish-Canadian. I have no political affiliation, and I have become an atheist who is not godless, just god-free—free of the gods. I have retired and recently published a book.
中美論壇 US-China Forum (Chinese): http://www.us-chinaforum.org/
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